Key Takeaways
- Bank of America analysts said the boom in sales growth for luxury retailers as the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic waned has peaked.
- Analysts for Bank of America said luxury-goods spending in the U.S. reached a high in the first quarter of 2022 and in Europe in the first quarter of this year.
- Bank of America suggested the luxury-goods stocks that could show the most upside are those with customers who are more affluent and have historically shown more resilience.
Bank of America warned that the boom in revenue growth for luxury-goods retailers as pandemic restrictions eased is over, and while that might provide an opportunity for investors, they might need to be choosy.
Analysts at the bank said demand for luxury goods peaked in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2022, and in Europe in the first quarter of this year.
They noted that luxury-company stocks are down 17% from their all-time highs in April as third-quarter demand normalized, especially in August. The Bank of America analysts added that they see a further slowdown through the end of the first half of next year, predicting a drop of 7% in 2024 earnings per share (EPS) for the sector.
Bank of America suggested the luxury-goods stocks that could show the most upside are those that target more affluent customers, or “have historically shown more resilience through the cycle." The analysts said they were more cautious about firms with higher exposure to younger, less affluent shoppers.