MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan finished flat on Wednesday. (AP PHOTO)
Camera IconMSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan finished flat on Wednesday. (AP PHOTO) Credit: AP

Dollar pushes higher before pivotal Fed meeting

Marc JonesReuters

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The dollar has risen for a fifth straight session, while stock and bond markets have trod water as traders brace for what could be a crucial US Federal Reserve meeting.

Japan's yen was at a four-month low on Wednesday after the BOJ finally ditched sub-zero rates, but the focus was on whether the Fed signals that it expects to cut US rates twice in 2024 rather than the three that markets have been hoping for.

The greenback was standing almost 0.5 per cent higher on the day in Europe, where the pound dipped after soft UK inflation data and luxury goods stocks tumbled after a hefty profit warning from Gucci maker Kering.

Bond markets were awaiting the Fed later in the day, with US 10-year Treasury yields, which tend to drive the global cost of borrowing, off recent highs while Gilt yields were also on the slide after the UK inflation numbers.

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"The market is completely indecisive on the number of Fed rate cuts," said Mathieu Savary, Chief European Strategist at BCA Research, describing it as "a complete coin toss" between two and three at the moment.

The dollar was up 0.6 per cent on the day to 151.70 yen, a fresh four-month high, and close to the 152 level that prompted Japanese authorities to intervene in FX markets in late 2022.

While Japan's historic shift away from negative interest rates and massive stimulus ushered in a new era of economic policy, analysts expect the BOJ's monetary normalisation to proceed at a glacial pace.

That has meant an extended lifespan for the popular carry trades where investors borrow yen to buy higher yielding currencies.

Tokyo's Nikkei had been closed for a holiday in Japan, but the yen's weakness lifted futures 0.4 per cent higher.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan finished flat on Wednesday.

Taiwanese shares fell 0.4 per cent while South Korean shares jumped 1.3 per cent, driven by a 5.6 per cent surge in Samsung Electronics after Nvidia said it was qualifying the South Korean chipmaker's high bandwidth memory chips.

Chinese shares edged higher too after the central bank there left benchmark lending rates unchanged, as widely expected.

The Shanghai Composite index gained 0.5 per cent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index crept up 0.2 per cent.

For the Fed, focus is on the risk that its the new economic projections - the fabled dot plot - signals just two interest rate cuts, down from three, or a later start to the cutting cycle than June.

A slew of European Central Bank officials including its president, Christine Lagarde, will be also speaking later.

Top rate setters have endorsed June as the likely month to start its cuts, and some would like as many as four this year.

Although the euro was down against the dollar on the day, at 164.66 yen it was at its strongest against the Japanese currency since 2008.

The Aussie dollar fetched 98.90 yen, just a notch below a nine-year high too.

Oil prices retreated from multi-month highs however due to the strong dollar.

Brent eased 0.7 per cent to $US86.80 a barrel, while gold prices also ticked down to $US2,154 an ounce, some distance away from this month's record high of $US2,194.99.