Value-focused investors are always on the hunt for stocks that are priced below their intrinsic value. One such stock that merits attention is Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA, Financial). The stock, which is currently priced at 27.42, recorded a loss of 2.73% in a day and a 3-month decrease of 13.12%. The stock's fair valuation is $45.66, as indicated by its GF Value.
Understanding the GF Value
The GF Value represents the current intrinsic value of a stock derived from our exclusive method. The GF Value Line on our summary page gives an overview of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on three factors:
- 1. Historical multiples (PE Ratio, PS Ratio, PB Ratio and Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow) that the stock has traded at.
- 2. GuruFocus adjustment factor based on the company's past returns and growth.
- 3. Future estimates of the business performance.
We believe the GF Value Line is the fair value that the stock should be traded at. The stock price will most likely fluctuate around the GF Value Line. If the stock price is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher.
Considering the Risks
However, investors need to consider a more in-depth analysis before making an investment decision. Despite its seemingly attractive valuation, certain risk factors associated with Walgreens Boots Alliance should not be ignored. These risks are primarily reflected through its low Altman Z-score of 1.78. These indicators suggest that Walgreens Boots Alliance, despite its apparent undervaluation, might be a potential value trap. This complexity underlines the importance of thorough due diligence in investment decision-making.
Understanding the Altman Z-Score
Before delving into the details, let's understand what the Altman Z-score entails. Invented by New York University Professor Edward I. Altman in 1968, the Z-Score is a financial model that predicts the probability of a company entering bankruptcy within a two-year time frame. The Altman Z-Score combines five different financial ratios, each weighted to create a final score. A score below 1.8 suggests a high likelihood of financial distress, while a score above 3 indicates a low risk.
Walgreens Boots Alliance: A Company Overview
Walgreens Boots Alliance is one of the largest retail pharmacy chains in the U.S., with over 8,500 locations. Nearly three quarters of Americans live within five miles of a Walgreens location. Roughly two thirds of revenue is generated from prescription drug sales; Walgreens makes up 20% of total prescription revenue in the U.S. Walgreens also generates sales from retail products (general wellness consumables and its own branded merchandise), European drug wholesale, and healthcare. With more locations incorporating additional services like Health Corner and Village Medical, Walgreens creates an omnichannel experience for patients and positions itself as a one-stop healthcare provider.
Breaking Down Walgreens Boots Alliance's Low Altman Z-Score
A dissection of Walgreens Boots Alliance's Altman Z-score reveals Walgreens Boots Alliance's financial health may be weak, suggesting possible financial distress:
The Retained Earnings to Total Assets ratio provides insights into a company's capability to reinvest its profits or manage debt. Evaluating Walgreens Boots Alliance's historical data, 2021: 0.38; 2022: 0.42; 2023: 0.34, we observe a declining trend in this ratio. This downward movement indicates Walgreens Boots Alliance's diminishing ability to reinvest in its business or effectively manage its debt. Consequently, it exerts a negative impact on its Z-Score.
The EBIT to Total Assets ratio serves as a crucial barometer of a company's operational effectiveness, correlating earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to total assets. An analysis of Walgreens Boots Alliance's EBIT to Total Assets ratio from historical data (2021: 0.03; 2022: 0.07; 2023: -0.05) indicates a descending trend. This reduction suggests that Walgreens Boots Alliance might not be utilizing its assets to their full potential to generate operational profits, which could be negatively affecting the company's overall Z-score.
When it comes to operational efficiency, a vital indicator for Walgreens Boots Alliance is its asset turnover. The data: 2021: 1.44; 2022: 1.48; 2023: 1.43 from the past three years suggests a recent decline following an initial increase in this ratio. The asset turnover ratio reflects how effectively a company is using its assets to generate sales. Therefore, a drop in this ratio can signify reduced operational efficiency, potentially due to underutilization of assets or decreased market demand for the company's products or services. This shift in Walgreens Boots Alliance's asset turnover underlines the need for the company to reassess its operational strategies to optimize asset usage and boost sales.
Conclusion: Is Walgreens Boots Alliance a Value Trap?
In light of the evidence, it seems that Walgreens Boots Alliance, despite its seemingly attractive valuation, may indeed be a potential value trap. The company's declining Retained Earnings to Total Assets ratio, decreasing EBIT to Total Assets ratio, and recent drop in asset turnover suggest potential financial distress and operational inefficiencies. These factors, combined with its low Altman Z-Score, indicate that the company may be at risk of financial instability. Therefore, investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough due diligence before considering an investment in Walgreens Boots Alliance.
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